Granger Causality Tests are statistical methods used to determine whether one time series can predict another. The fundamental idea is based on the premise that if variable Granger-causes variable , then past values of should contain information that helps predict beyond the information contained in past values of alone. The test involves estimating two regressions: one that regresses on its own lagged values and another that regresses on both its own lagged values and the lagged values of .
Mathematically, this can be represented as:
and
If the inclusion of past values of significantly improves the prediction of (i.e., the coefficients are statistically significant), we conclude that Granger-causes . However, it is essential to note that Granger causality does not imply true
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