The Phillips Curve Expectations refers to the relationship between inflation and unemployment, which is influenced by the expectations of both variables. Traditionally, the Phillips Curve suggested an inverse relationship: as unemployment decreases, inflation tends to increase, and vice versa. However, when expectations of inflation are taken into account, this relationship becomes more complex.
Incorporating expectations means that if people anticipate higher inflation in the future, they may adjust their behavior accordingly—such as demanding higher wages, which can lead to a self-fulfilling cycle of rising prices and wages. This adjustment can shift the Phillips Curve, resulting in a vertical curve in the long run, where no trade-off exists between inflation and unemployment, summarized in the concept of the Natural Rate of Unemployment. Mathematically, this can be represented as:
where is the actual inflation rate, is the expected inflation rate, is the unemployment rate, is the natural rate of unemployment, and is a positive constant. This illustrates how expectations play a crucial role in shaping economic dynamics.
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