The Phillips Curve Expectations Adjustment refers to the modification of the traditional Phillips Curve, which illustrates the inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment. In its original form, the Phillips Curve suggested that lower unemployment rates could be achieved at the cost of higher inflation. However, this relationship is influenced by inflation expectations. When individuals and businesses anticipate higher inflation, they adjust their behavior accordingly, which can shift the Phillips Curve.
This adjustment leads to a scenario known as the "expectations-augmented Phillips Curve," represented mathematically as:
where is the actual inflation rate, is the expected inflation rate, is the natural rate of unemployment, and is the actual unemployment rate. As expectations change, the trade-off between inflation and unemployment also shifts, complicating monetary policy decisions. Thus, understanding this adjustment is crucial for policymakers aiming to manage inflation and employment effectively.
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