The Rational Expectations Hypothesis (REH) posits that individuals form their expectations about the future based on all available information, including past experiences and current economic indicators. This theory suggests that people do not make systematic errors when predicting future events; instead, their forecasts are, on average, correct. Consequently, any surprises in economic policy or conditions will only have temporary effects on the economy, as agents quickly adjust their expectations.
In mathematical terms, if represents the expectation at time , the hypothesis can be expressed as:
This implies that the expected value of the future variable is equal to its actual value in the long run. The REH has significant implications for economic models, particularly in the fields of macroeconomics and finance, as it challenges the effectiveness of systematic monetary and fiscal policy interventions.
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