Variational Inference Techniques

The Kolmogorov Axioms form the foundational framework for probability theory, established by the Russian mathematician Andrey Kolmogorov in the 1930s. These axioms define a probability space $(S, \mathcal{F}, P)$, where $S$ is the sample space, $\mathcal{F}$ is a σ-algebra of events, and $P$ is the probability measure. The three main axioms are:

1. Non-negativity: For any event $A \in \mathcal{F}$, the probability $P(A)$ is always non-negative:

$P(A) \geq 0$

2. Normalization: The probability of the entire sample space equals 1:

$P(S) = 1$

3. Countable Additivity: For any countable collection of mutually exclusive events $A_1, A_2, \ldots \in \mathcal{F}$, the probability of their union is equal to the sum of their probabilities:

$P\left(\bigcup_{i=1}^{\infty} A_i\right) = \sum_{i=1}^{\infty} P(A_i)$

These axioms provide the basis for further developments in probability theory and allow for rigorous manipulation of probabilities

Forward contracts are financial agreements between two parties to buy or sell an asset at a predetermined price on a specified future date. These contracts are typically used to hedge against price fluctuations in commodities, currencies, or other financial instruments. Unlike standard futures contracts, forward contracts are customized and traded over-the-counter (OTC), meaning they can be tailored to meet the specific needs of the parties involved.

The key components of a forward contract include the contract size, delivery date, and price agreed upon at the outset. Since they are not standardized, forward contracts carry a certain degree of counterparty risk, which is the risk that one party may default on the agreement. In mathematical terms, if $S_t$ is the spot price of the asset at time $t$, then the profit or loss at the contract's maturity can be expressed as:

where $S_T$ is the spot price at maturity and $K$ is the agreed-upon forward price.

The Taylor Rule is a monetary policy guideline that suggests how central banks should adjust interest rates in response to changes in economic conditions. Formulated by economist John B. Taylor in 1993, it provides a systematic approach to setting interest rates based on two key factors: the deviation of actual inflation from the target inflation rate and the difference between actual output and potential output (often referred to as the output gap).

The rule can be expressed mathematically as follows:

where:

• $i$ = nominal interest rate
• $r^*$ = equilibrium real interest rate
• $\pi$ = current inflation rate
• $\pi^*$ = target inflation rate
• $y$ = actual output
• $\bar{y}$ = potential output

By following the Taylor Rule, central banks aim to stabilize the economy by adjusting interest rates to promote sustainable growth and maintain price stability, making it a crucial tool in modern monetary policy.

Electron band structure refers to the range of energy levels that electrons can occupy in a solid material, which is crucial for understanding its electrical properties. In crystalline solids, the energies of electrons are quantized into bands, separated by band gaps where no electron states can exist. These bands can be classified as valence bands, which are filled with electrons, and conduction bands, which are typically empty or partially filled. The band gap is the energy difference between the top of the valence band and the bottom of the conduction band, and it determines whether a material behaves as a conductor, semiconductor, or insulator. For example:

• Conductors: Overlapping bands or a very small band gap.
• Semiconductors: A moderate band gap that can be overcome at room temperature or through doping.
• Insulators: A large band gap that prevents electron excitation under normal conditions.

Understanding the electron band structure is essential for the design of electronic devices, as it dictates how materials will conduct electricity and respond to external stimuli.

The Clausius Theorem is a fundamental principle in thermodynamics, specifically relating to the second law of thermodynamics. It states that the change in entropy $\Delta S$ of a closed system is greater than or equal to the heat transferred $Q$ divided by the temperature $T$ at which the transfer occurs. Mathematically, this can be expressed as:

This theorem highlights the concept that in any real process, the total entropy of an isolated system will either increase or remain constant, but never decrease. This implies that energy transformations are not 100% efficient, as some energy is always converted into a less useful form, typically heat. The Clausius Theorem underscores the directionality of thermodynamic processes and the irreversibility that is characteristic of natural phenomena.

The Riemann Integral is a fundamental concept in calculus that allows us to compute the area under a curve defined by a function $f(x)$ over a closed interval $[a, b]$. The process involves partitioning the interval into $n$ subintervals of equal width $\Delta x = \frac{b - a}{n}$. For each subinterval, we select a sample point $x_i^*$, and then the Riemann sum is constructed as:

As $n$ approaches infinity, if the limit of the Riemann sums exists, we define the Riemann integral of $f$ from $a$ to $b$ as:

This integral represents not only the area under the curve but also provides a means to understand the accumulation of quantities described by the function $f(x)$. The Riemann Integral is crucial for various applications in physics, economics, and engineering, where the accumulation of continuous data is essential.