Friedman’s Permanent Income Hypothesis (PIH) posits, that individuals base their consumption decisions not solely on their current income, but on their expectations of permanent income, which is an average of expected long-term income. According to this theory, people will smooth their consumption over time, meaning they will save or borrow to maintain a stable consumption level, regardless of short-term fluctuations in income.
The hypothesis can be summarized in the equation:
where is consumption at time , is the permanent income at time , and represents a constant reflecting the marginal propensity to consume. This suggests that temporary changes in income, such as bonuses or windfalls, have a smaller impact on consumption than permanent changes, leading to greater stability in consumption behavior over time. Ultimately, the PIH challenges traditional Keynesian views by emphasizing the role of expectations and future income in shaping economic behavior.
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