The Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU) theory posits that there exists a specific level of unemployment in an economy where inflation remains stable. According to this theory, if unemployment falls below this natural rate, inflation tends to increase, while if it rises above this rate, inflation tends to decrease. This balance is crucial because it implies that there is a trade-off between inflation and unemployment, encapsulated in the Phillips Curve.
In essence, the NAIRU serves as an indicator for policymakers, suggesting that efforts to reduce unemployment significantly below this level may lead to accelerating inflation, which can destabilize the economy. The NAIRU is not fixed; it can shift due to various factors such as changes in labor market policies, demographics, and economic shocks. Thus, understanding the NAIRU is vital for effective economic policymaking, particularly in monetary policy.
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