Prospect Theory is a behavioral economic theory developed by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky in 1979. It describes how individuals make decisions under risk and uncertainty, highlighting that people value gains and losses differently. Specifically, the theory posits that losses are felt more acutely than equivalent gains—this phenomenon is known as loss aversion. The value function in Prospect Theory is typically concave for gains and convex for losses, indicating diminishing sensitivity to changes in wealth.
Mathematically, the value function can be represented as:
where , , and indicates that losses loom larger than gains. Additionally, Prospect Theory introduces the concept of probability weighting, where people tend to overweigh small probabilities and underweigh large probabilities, leading to decisions that deviate from expected utility theory.
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