Overconfidence bias refers to the tendency of individuals to overestimate their own abilities, knowledge, or the accuracy of their predictions. This cognitive bias can lead to poor decision-making, as people may take excessive risks or dismiss contrary evidence. For instance, a common manifestation occurs in financial markets, where investors may believe they can predict stock movements better than they actually can, often resulting in significant losses. The bias can be categorized into several forms, including overestimation of one's actual performance, overplacement where individuals believe they are better than their peers, and overprecision, which reflects excessive certainty about the accuracy of one's beliefs or predictions. Addressing overconfidence bias involves recognizing its existence and implementing strategies such as seeking feedback, considering alternative viewpoints, and grounding decisions in data rather than intuition.
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