Prospect Theory, developed by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, introduces the concept of reference points to explain how individuals evaluate potential gains and losses. A reference point is essentially a baseline or a status quo that people use to judge outcomes; they perceive outcomes as gains or losses relative to this point rather than in absolute terms. For instance, if an investor expects a return of 5% on an investment and receives 7%, they perceive this as a gain of 2%. Conversely, if they receive only 3%, it is viewed as a loss of 2%. This leads to the principle of loss aversion, where losses are felt more intensely than equivalent gains, often described by the ratio of approximately 2:1. Thus, the reference point significantly influences decision-making processes, as people tend to be risk-averse in the domain of gains and risk-seeking in the domain of losses.
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