Adaptive expectations is an economic theory that suggests individuals form their expectations about future events based on past experiences and observations. In this framework, people's expectations are updated gradually as new information becomes available, rather than being based on a static model or rational calculations. For example, if inflation rates have been rising, individuals may predict that future inflation will also increase, adjusting their expectations in response to the observed trend. This approach is often formalized mathematically by the equation:
where is the expected value at time , is the actual value observed at time , and is a parameter that determines how quickly expectations adjust. The implications of adaptive expectations are significant in various economic models, particularly in understanding how markets react to changes in economic policy or external shocks.
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